If you were of a scientific background, you would know this. It is much easier to predict simple motion over complex motion. The more degrees of freedom you add, the more chaotic a system becomes.
With that said, who is able to predict the future?
In today's paradigm, I think we have two distinct topics that are loosely related.
- Prediction Markets
We had betting companies, and now we have things like Polymarket & Kalshi. They started as a way to open up more dynamic betting markets, in what some would argue as a more "transparent" way of operating a betting market, though each market is limited by the amount of money placed in it.
Yet, another phenomenon has arisen from this. People who are certain of outcomes because of insider information, are placing huge bets. This is not different from insider trading, but is now in a different form.
Does this mean that people are "predicting". I mean, by definition of the word that you are forecasting an future event to have a particular outcome, sure. However, this might not be relying on an innate ability to forecast, but just information you have heard and rely on.
So as a result, this becomes a game of "confidence".
If you are first to receive a particular bit of information, how much do you trust that information? Would you relay that information on as fact, and trust your peers to do the same?
Do people even back validating information up with secondary sources?
- Intuition
No doubt some people are more "intuitive" than others. If you asked me to define it, it's almost like "knowing some kind of truth", without having the facts.
But the truth could be wrong, and our feelings might also be wrong. Our gut feelings do tell us a lot though - sometimes it might lead us away from danger, as we sense something is wrong, or we get a feeling that something is about to happen - an omen.
Now, would you put enough faith in your intuition to regard it as the entire truth?
Is our intuition finetuned by our memories and events on our lives, so that we make wiser decisions going forward?
Now, I put forward a theory that many outspoken people (and in ancient times, you may call them "heretics") are guided by strong intuition, even if it seems wacky in the context of things. Of course, I'm not talking about people will full blown delusions and psychoses. I'm considering that people in positions of power and say have the opportunity and the occasion to extend humanity, through intuition. It may be a reach to say that such intuition shows guidance from a higher power, but in hindsight, sometimes we wonder how we stumbled upon things the way we did. I will leave that interpretation up to you.
I have nothing to sell you, but ancient prophecies that the world is about to change drastically?
I want to introduce the Tui Bei Tu, a book containing 60 diagrams, each referring to a particular prediction, many of which have occurred already. These are expressed as metaphors, and each picture is accompanied by short poetry.
There are various interpretations of it, even in regards to the "number" of the prediction that the world is up to.
In my view, we are in the midst of #56, meaning #57 is up next. As for the interpretation itself, you can make up your mind if you agree. Although it has not come to the surface, it is obvious that the world has been fighting some kind of war for the past number of years, if not longer. Perhaps things will get worse, but in an unexpected event, everything changes.
Many things are not apparent to us because we tend to think about what is mentioned in the news and the media to inform us, but the most glaring signs are actually in the omissions. There is always a narrative to spin things, so really, think about what is the most logical reason for particular events, as opposed to these roundabout explanations.
And in spite of our cognitive dissonance and our discomfort hearing things that we wouldn't have believed in many years ago, we must push through and own our truth. Only then, can we manifest the future in our own way.